In the comments of a post below, Mack talks about the number of jobs that will theoretically be lost as the internal combustion engine is replaced by an altertantively fueled model. He laments them as a casualty of our war for fuel independence, and there is something to what he’s saying.
It’s depressing to think of the lines of work that will be lost as our infrastructure changes to accommodate a different fuel economy. I can’t help but realise, however, that new inventions create new revenue streams not even dreamed about by most folks.
Take my husband, for instance. When we met in college almost 20 years ago and talked about our plans for the future we had vague ideas about counselling and practicing law. We had no idea that the two things which would provide for our needs and wants into our thirties and forties would even exist. Cell phones were a bulky chunk of ugly plastic used only by Wall Street whiz kids and 80s Get Wealthy poseurs. Yet by 2002 the cell phone business had reached a point where we were able to earn a relatively nice income from cell phone products. Now our income is generated largely from ancillary products for the iPod. Twenty years ago the iPod was merely a germ in Steve Jobs’ brain–if that. Folks like me would never have predicted that an entire industry would grow up around providing products related to a newfangled stepchild of the transistor radio.
It’s been very tempting to me to fall into the slough of despond when contemplating our current energy situation in the United States. I’ve had to pray hard about my attitude as I try to resist the fear of change. In the spirit of 2 Timothy 1:7 I have been trying to overcome my spirit of fear. It helps to remember that change can bring not just the end of one era but the brighter horizons of a new one.
Exactly. I still say the older workers will suffer the most, many are too old to re-train, and I hope they are able to be absorbed into whatever system follows. But, the younger ones can flourish is whatever job market comes about, provided we have an educated pool to pick from. I think we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, that is, the changes will be sweeping…how we work, how we live, a total shift in priorities. Its probably a good thing.
Older workers are already suffering, without reference to new technologies. These cost-cutting days, they are the first to be fired (and the last to get new jobs) because they’re at higher salary levels. This can be a problem in certain industries, where the workers with experience in dealing with certain recurring problems or crises is lost. I don’t know what the future of that will be, but we should note that this country is going through an age restructuring as well as a technology restructuring, and in another generation our age distribution will be very different than what it is today.
Which will factor into the shifts brought in by new technologies. The worrisome thing to me about big changes now is that in a largely urban society, the people who lose their jobs don’t have the option of working on the neighbors’ farms to make do.
NM, this goes back to what i was saying about shared housing. If everyone is making less, logic says that it will take more people earning to pay for X square foot. Perhaps two working families will be necessary to pay for a 2000 sq ft house. I think its likely. For many, this can probably happen within the family, (multi-generation households) and i love that change.
I don’t think we’re getting into a situation in which everyone’s making less, though. Some will make less, some will make more (through early entry into the new tech) and some will worry a lot because of what’s happening to their neighbors but not be making significantly less than before. And I don’t see how shared housing helps those who are out of work completely. My family has stories of relatives who completely disappeared out of our knowledge during the Great Depression because no one had enough extra to help them out regularly. They may have died, they may have hopped a train and changed their names and ended up managing to survive elsewhere — we don’t know. In a rural environment, though, there’s usually at least some part-time work to be found and the possibility of growing some of one’s own food. Urban life takes that possibility away.
I think we are already in a situation where people are making less. Blame globalization, or the demise of unions, doesn’t matter at this point. Debt is not being talked about enough, and i guess i feel that once money available through debttors becomes scarce, people will be forced to not just curtail their spending, but look for completely different sets of answers. Home sharing will be one of them. Frankly, if the ability to grow your own food is a survival basic…well i think millions are doomed.
Home sharing is a viable solution, and one which I see more and more of.
I also think self-rehabs are going to become more popular, and I think the industry that grew up around rehabs during the housing bubble will switch its focus onto self-rehabbers to stay afloat. This solves several problems and is one of the more eco-friendly options around.